Editor’s note: This piece contains analysis of the 2023 Annual Church Profile (ACP). The 2024 ACP data will be released later this year.
BRENTWOOD, Tenn. — The average Southern Baptist church calls the South home, but the only region of the country where those congregations are growing is the Northeast. Churches are baptizing more people, but most churches remain small and fewer attendees are involved in small groups.
Lifeway Research analysis of the 2023 Annual Church Profile (ACP) reveals a more detailed look at the Convention and where evangelism and discipleship efforts have been most effective.
“Each year Southern Baptist congregations share a few statistics about their church,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “Some fear this will be used to judge their church, but the reality is real value lies in what we learn from churches together. Looking at combinations of those responses and looking across time reveals how the context of ministry varies across the country and how churches of different types have different challenges.”
Average Southern Baptist church
The smallest churches are an increasing percentage of the Southern Baptist Convention. In 2018, 38 percent of congregations fell in the smallest category, fewer than 50 in attendance. In the 2023 ACP, those churches represented 43 percent of the SBC. Seven in 10 churches in the SBC see fewer than 100 people at their weekly worship service, including 27 percent that average 50-99 and 43 percent that average fewer than 50 attendees each week. One in 5 (20 percent) are between 100-249. Fewer large churches are part of the Convention, with 6 percent averaging 250-499 for their services and 4 percent climbing to 500 or more.
Almost 4 in 5 Southern Baptist churches (78 percent) are, in fact, Southern. Far fewer are located in the Midwest (11 percent), West (9 percent) or Northeast (2 percent) regions. Close to half (45 percent) are in suburban areas, compared to 28 percent in urban areas and 27 percent in the rural U.S.
Half of Southern Baptist congregations began in the 20th century, including 21 percent that started between 1900-1949 and 29 percent that began from 1950-1999. Slightly more than a quarter (27 percent) date their founding back before 1900, while 23 percent started since 2000.
Around a third of churches draw fewer than half of their worship attendees to Sunday School or other types of small groups, including 22 percent who say between 25 percent and less than 50 percent are involved and 9 percent who have less than a quarter of worship service attendees in a group. Two in 5 (41 percent) say between 50 percent and less than 75 percent also attend small groups. One in 5 (19 percent) see more than 75 percent to 100 percent involved. Around 1 in 10 (9 percent) have more in their small groups ministry than regularly attend worship services.
Increasingly, churches are drawing fewer people from worship services to Sunday School or other types of small group ministries. The percent of Southern Baptist churches with fewer than 25 percent of their attendees involved in a small group grew from 6 percent in 2018 to 9 percent in 2023. Similarly, the churches with 25 percent to less than 50 percent of attendees involved in a small group grew from 19 percent to 22 percent.
“The slow but persistent trend of larger churches growing and smaller churches shrinking in the U.S. has continued post-COVID,” McConnell said. “While smaller churches bounced back quickly to near pre-COVID levels, smaller church growth is much less common since then.”
Baptisms increasing
Since the pandemic, Southern Baptist churches have been baptizing more people. Baptisms increased by 26 percent from 2022 to 2023. Combined with the 16 percent increase from 2021 to 2022, the SBC has seen a 47 percent increase over two years.
In 2023, churches averaged 8.5 total baptisms compared to 7.4 in 2018. A smaller percentage of churches are reporting no baptisms (28 percent in 2018 v. 26 percent in 2023), and a higher percentage are reporting 10 or more baptisms (18 percent v. 20 percent).
Five years ago, churches averaged 5.4 baptisms per 100 worship attendees. That grew to 6.1 in 2023. While this marks an increase over recent years, 6.1 baptisms per 100 attendees is still below historical averages for the Southern Baptist Convention.
“Comfort and evangelistic effectiveness tend not to mix. As churches get comfortable the longer they exist or relax being located in a community that is largely Christian, we see fewer baptisms,” McConnell said. “But new churches whose survival requires reaching new people, those in communities with few Christians, or those in very populated areas with people having many viewpoints see more baptisms.”
Baptism numbers vary according to numerous factors. Southern Baptist churches in the West (10.3) and South (8.9) average more total baptisms than those in the Midwest (5.6). Considering baptisms per 100 worship attendees, however, the Northeast ranks as the highest with 7.7 per 100 followed by the West (7.3), the South (6.0) and the Midwest (5.8).
The larger the population is around the church, the more baptisms the congregation averages. Churches in rural areas average 4.4 total baptisms, compared to 8.5 in the suburbs and 15 in urban centers.
On average, younger churches baptize more people. Congregations founded since 1950 average 10.2 total baptisms. Those that started between 1900-1949 average 7.3, and the ones that began before 1900 average 7.0. Using baptisms per 100 attendees, the age of the church displays a clearer difference in baptisms. Churches founded before 1900 average 5.1 baptisms per 100 attendees. The number of baptisms grows among younger churches. Those founded 1900-1949 average 5.8 per 100. Churches started from 1950-1999 average 6.1, and those that began since 2000 average 8.4 per 100 attendees.
“These baptism trends give us reason to be optimistic. I think what we are seeing is more pastors who are leading their churches back to the priority of evangelism,” said Kevin Ezell, president of the North American Mission Board. “I am also grateful that so many pastors and churches have answered the call to plant churches in difficult places, outside the South. The evangelistic effectiveness of newer churches should encourage all of us to stay with the hard work of church planting.”
Additionally, Southern Baptist churches struggling to involve attendees in small groups also average the least number of total baptisms (7.0) and baptisms per 100 worship attendees (5.6).
Membership highlights
New England was the only region of the U.S. where Southern Baptist churches grew from 2018 to 2023. Churches in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont grew by 10 percent. Every other region saw declines in overall church membership. The two regions composed of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee, and Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas experienced the smallest drop (-8 percent).
The newest churches also experienced growth. Overall, churches founded before 2000 declined in membership. Southern Baptist congregations founded since 2000 grew their membership by 9 percent.
The largest churches are the most likely to have grown by at least 10 percent since 2018. More than a quarter (27 percent) of those with 500 or more in attendance are categorized as growing. Churches founded since 2000 (44 percent) are also the most likely to have grown by at least 10 percent. Those that began between 1950-1999 (20 percent) are the next most likely.
“A church can’t change its age, general location or current size. But one grouping in this analysis is available for any church to do,” said McConnell. “When a church has a laser focus on making disciples in biblical community and is excited to share that message of Jesus Christ with others around them, they see new people coming to Christ.”
For more information, view the complete reports (baptisms, five-year performance and church statistics) and visit LifewayResearch.com.
Methodology
This analysis is based on data reported on the Annual Church Profile in 2018 and 2023. The Annual Church Profile is an annual statistical census of Southern Baptist congregations conducted cooperatively by local associations, state conventions, and Lifeway Christian Resources. Around 7 in 10 Southern Baptist churches (69 percent) reported at least one item on the 2023 ACP.
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