NASHVILLE (BP) – Abel Garcia thought he finally would be happy after gender transition surgery. But the first three months of trying to live as a woman left him empty. That’s when he drew a startling conclusion: he wanted to live as a man again.
“It all came crashing down like an avalanche one day,” Garcia said, “and I had to ask myself, ‘What am I doing?’” That launched him into a battle to fix his broken life.
“I’m just working on trying to live my life,” he said in an episode of The World and Everything in It podcast, “and to do the best that I can to live as a man.”
Garcia is not alone, according to a study by British researcher Erik Kaufmann. He concluded the percentage of American young adults identifying as transgender has decreased by nearly 50 percent since 2023.
“Trans, queer and bisexual identities are in rapid decline among young educated Americans,” Kaufmann wrote.
Christian analysts have responded with cautious optimism. Some question Kaufmann’s research methodology. Yet if the number of young Americans identifying as transgender is trending downward, evangelical experts on transgenderism say it is time to ramp up ministry to those with gender confusion.
Kaufmann, professor of politics at the University of Buckingham, drew data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression’s annual survey of some 60,000 undergraduate students and from a Higher Education Research Institute survey. He wrote that “the transgender share among university students peaked in 2023 and has almost halved since, from nearly 7 percent to under 4 percent.”
Today’s college freshmen are less likely to identify as bisexual, transgender or queer than seniors, he stated, “suggesting that the decline will continue.”
The research leaves Albert Mohler hopeful. “It is a return to moral sanity?” the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary president asked on his podcast The Briefing. “Well, that’s an interesting question to ask. And I think we have hope that it is something like that, at least in part.”
But some evangelical researchers are hesitant about Kaufmann’s conclusions. Among them is Mark Yarhouse, director of the Wheaton College’s Sexual and Gender Identity Institute.
“I’m not prepared to draw strong conclusions from this one study,” Yarhouse said. “As others have noted, there appear to be issues with unweighted survey data which, in this case, could affect whether the sample accurately represents the population. Some have reported more of a plateau or leveling off rather than a sharp drop. I think future research will help us understand what may very well be some changes in young adults’ identifying as transgender.”
Cultural shift
Gregg Allison, a senior fellow with the Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission (ERLC) Research Institute, said Kaufmann’s research has not been peer reviewed, and it focuses narrowly on college students without asking about adolescents as well. Still, he noted evidence of a “cultural shift” on transgenderism.
There seems to be “a cultural reality of less approbation of transgenderism, certainly less approbation of men playing women’s sports,” said Allison, professor of theology at Southern Seminary. He noted executive orders related to transgenderism by President Donald Trump, the advocacy of former collegiate swimmer Riley Gaines against men playing women’s sports and trends in Europe away from so-called gender-affirming care for minors.
If Kaufman is correct and transgenderism is waning, does that mean the Church can back away from ministry to the gender confused? Not at all, say evangelical ethicists and counselors. It is time to double down on help for those still struggling.
“We need churches that can exemplify Christ’s compassion without compromising biblical truth,” said Lilly Park, associate professor of biblical counseling at Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary.
That means both explaining that sexual sins are offensive to God and taking time to understand the thoughts and feelings of people who are confused about their gender identities, Park said. Changing the behavior of transgender individuals is not the ultimate goal of ministry, she said. Rather, churches should seek to address heart problems that result in gender confusion.
Begin by asking lots of questions to people with gender confusion, Park said. Then introduce Scripture “that addresses their deeper questions and struggles.” Share “Jesus’ compassion on outcasts,” including His conversation with a sinful Samaritan woman in John 4. “It’s a story that we can use to show the person that Christ offers salvation to all people no matter what sin you’re struggling with.”
Churches also must recognize repentance can be a long process for people coming out of transgenderism.
“If we are quick to expect them to repent right there,” Park said, “then we might miss opportunities to encourage them to keep meeting with us.”
Opportunity for action
Liberal and conservative denominations alike apparently see a cultural moment for action related to gender identity. The ERLC announced its support this month for the Chloe Cole Act, a bill in Congress that would ban gender transitions for minors.
The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops voted Nov. 12 to direct America’s Catholic health care institutions not to aid in chemical or surgical gender transitions.
The same day, a group of nine liberal religious groups issued a statement affirming “the holiness of transgender, nonbinary, and intersex people, as well as the recognition of the entire spectrum of gender identity and expression.” Signatories included leaders of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), the Episcopal Church and the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) in the United States and Canada.
The SBC opposed “‘gender transition’ interventions” in a 2023 resolution “as a futile quest to change one’s sex and as a direct assault on God’s created order.”
Allison said biblical churches must minister to individuals repenting of transgenderism with sensitivity and patience. In some cases, that may mean encouraging them to reverse surgical alterations of their bodies. In other cases, that may mean encouraging them to live out the gender God assigned them without insisting on painful and costly surgical reversals.
A growing community of Christian mental health care professionals, Allison said, is well equipped to guide formerly transgender individuals in living out the gender God assigned them.
“These are not well known or very public ministries,” he said. “They are local biblical counseling practices, Christian psychologists and Christian psychiatrists who are doing a very good job dealing with this issue. But they don’t get very much press.”
Though the conservative media flurry about the decline of transgenderism can be exciting, Park said, scoring cultural victories must not be believers’ priority.
“I welcome research that supports a decline in transgenderism,” she said. “Coming from a counseling background, I also recognize that there are a lot of opportunities for Christians in the Church to positively influence people who are struggling with their gender identity. That’s my priority.”
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